A blend of candidate strength, live prediction-market odds, and where public sentiment is moving right now.
Updated August 12, 2026
The 2028 Invisible Primary
A three-way tie has opened on the left. The right remains Vance's race, with Rubio the clear No. 2.
Every name below is polling or trading well enough to matter. The Democratic field is fragmented, thirteen names deep. The Republican field is Vance's, with Rubio a distant but real No. 2.
D Democratic contenders
R Republican contenders
I Independent & third-party watch
Editorial analysis based on current polling and public reporting. No one has formally declared; no votes have been cast. This field will change.
Nomination odds, Polymarket
The Case For
The Case Against
Audience
Pulse
Fragility
Lane
The Road to 2028
Every date that decides how this ends.
Primaries, Super Tuesday, Election Day, Inauguration. One line, start to finish.
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
The Republican Party hasn't announced its 2028 early-state order yet. Iowa and New Hampshire have led every recent GOP cycle, but that's precedent, not confirmation.
The Line
Our call vs. the market's.
When we disagree, that's the whole point of this page.
Loading market odds…
Trader-implied probability, not a prediction. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi · snapshot